I haven't seen this addressed yet, and I want to be the first to get it in the open air before the debates actually hit:

I think Sarah Palin is engaged in what the writers and performers of the professional wrestling business call a 'swerve.'

I know most of you aren't gonna be wrestling fans, but bear with me for a little background here.

Here's a classic example of the swerve in pro wrestling:  In the early 1990's Brian Pillman (RIP) ran an angle in Ted Turner's World Championship Wrestling where he was competing for a light-heavyweight belt.  In the championship match, Pillman's booked opponent, Brad Armstrong, had a leg injury (broken?  don't remember), but Pillman insisted on fighting him anyway and won the match and the title.

As the storyline went, WCW management thought this to be unsporting, and insisted on a rematch when Armstrong became healthy again.  

So the match is booked, and we're ready to go, and out comes Pillman...with a broken leg, on crutches.

He does a five-minute interview with an announcer and Armstrong present, discussing how he has seen the error of his ways, he's terribly sorry for having taken advantage of Armstrong at a weak moment, he feels terrible and contrite, has the long face and the puppy-dog eyes on, begs Armstrong's forgiveness...

...and as Armstrong forgives him, Pillman attacks him with the crutch, beating the crap out of him, throws him in the ring, the match starts, Pillman retains the title, laughing maniacally all the way and cementing his well-deserved reputation as one of the most effective 'heel' characters in the business.

In the wrestling business, this is what they call a swerve.  Pillman 'swerved' Armstrong, and the announcer, and (the real swerve, of course) the fans.

Now, I hope I'm wrong.  I fervently hope I'm wrong and I REALLY hope that the Obama-Biden team is taking this into consideration.  If they aren't, it's a failure on their part of epic proportions that could well lose them the race.

But I have a strong suspicion that Sarah Palin's Gibson and Couric interviews...are a swerve.  This is 'managing expectations' on steroids.  The woman has made herself look fragile, ignorant, muddled, incompetent, laughably - comedicly - inept.

But I've seen some of the debates she has been involved in previously.  C-Span ran a full viewing of one debate for her Governor's race...and in it, we see a Sarah Palin that is sharp, witty, far more than just competent but expert in her delivery, her command of the facts, her ability to 'turn' a debate question back to the topics and catchphrases she wants to discuss.  We see spirit.  Commanding intelligence.  Perhaps most glaringly, we see a strong, independent woman who simply is not believable in the position of being sequestered away from the mean ol' Liberal Media by her male keepers.

I think the McCain-Palin campaign has taken the measure of Joe Biden and Barack Obama and found them cocky, arrogant, and self-assured.  Smug, even.  Not saying I think that, just that's how their opponents see them, and those are the weaknesses they intend to exploit.

And to that end, they have carefullly constructed this 'Stepford Veep' persona for Palin with two goals in mind:  to so dramatically lower the expectations of viewers that they will consider it a victory if Palin just manages to remember her own name, and to so dramatically lower the expectations of Joe Biden that he walks in to the debate prepared for an easy ride.

As I cruise the message boards and cesspools of online 'debate,' the assumption that Biden will win this debate easily is almost universal.  You've got Republican pundits calling for Palin to step down (and yeah, I think those pundits are probably part of the game).  You've got a candidate who has managed to make Katie Couric seem threatening and aggressive.  It wouldn't surprise me a bit for this debate to pull the highest rating in modern television history - 70 million is not an unrealistic number at all, and 80 wouldn't surprise me.

I think Palin knows this, and I think she is far, FAR more prepared and confident about her chances than any of us believe her to be.

I want to be clear:  I don't like Sarah Palin.  I think she's obnoxious, hyperconservative, radically religious, and her record of crushing her enemies and promoting her friends to positions of power borders on that of the Kremlin.  Her philosophy on sex education has proven failed in her own family but she lacks the self-critical skill to recognize it.  She speaks in tongues and has been prayed over for protection from 'witchcraft'; she believes that oil pipelines and unjustified wars are 'god's work.'  She's a hardcore demagogue and ideologue, and frankly the idea of her having any sort of political power scares me to death.

I say that because I want to be very clear that it's not my intent to praise her or elevate her.  The woman flat-out scares me; she's Nehemiah Scudder in a pantsuit, by every indication, and under the current circumstances I find that truly frightening.

What concerns me is this:  if Joe Biden walks into that venue on Thursday night expecting that he'll have to restrain himself from looking TOO superior...he's going to lose this debate.  If he considers Sarah Palin anything less than the very toughest debate opponent he has ever faced, he's going to lose this debate.  If he lets his mouth get away from him, or appears too patronizing or condescending, he will lose this debate.

And if he loses this debate, you can bet safely that the Republican campaign, their base, and a substantial number of independent voters will not consider him to have lost to a strong opponent, but to a woman who couldn't even stand up to the glare of Katie Couric.

You'd better bring your 'A' game, Senator Biden.  The conventional wisdom seems to be against me on this...but I think you're really going to need it.